Trade Improvements

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         Some adjustments might be in order within the trading aspect of the game.  Changes recently made, while needed for a good reason, have shifted the flow of traded goods and made other problems increase or appear.  This is in three parts.

Part 1  Hub access

First, since it was, I think, necessary to give the newer players access to at least Centrum, it has become the focal point of most trade.  This is, in part, because it generally has the lowest prices, and during a peaceful period when speed is not critical, price wins out over speed.  Thus, most players, even those in BL, who trade will have a trader in Centrum.  This centralizes trading activities and leaves other hubs, especially in BL, un or under used.  Since it does take some "critical mass" to really get a trading center going, in the long run this will hurt trade in BL and probably in the game overall.

Possible solutions are: 

1) Restrict the amount of time a player has free access to Centrum (by free I simply mean that it is visible to him or her without a trader present)

2) Restrict the distance Centrum is visible so that it includes the newb ring but not much beyond.

3) Restrict the type of items a player can purchase from Centrum without a trader.  Perhaps the basic resources only since that's what most new players would be purchasing...or maybe those and a few other low level items.

None of these are perfect solutions and it may be that "None of the above" should be pursued.  However, a robust trading system should, I think, be built across Illyland and whatever can be done to encourage the geographic distribution of trade improves things for all.

Part 2 Increase demand for equipment

A second problem I see in Illyland trade is something far more difficult to fix, and which is more fundamental to what I consider a general weakness of the game, and that is the low demand for items in general.  There are, I think, several reasons for this.

First, the demand is low because the cost of using and crafting the items makes it better to just produce more troops than to equip them with expensive gear they will lose in battle.

Second, the demand is low because supply is high.  When demand is low there is a tendency to stock pile items while you wait for a better price.  During a war you may get that better price, but the price during peacetime is greatly depressed if the marked to saturated.   

Third, the demand is low because the price is high on certain items....so high that nobody wants to purchase them and risk losing them in battle -- which would really be an argument that the demand it very low...much lower than the supply.  In other words, the the cost of producing the item is a lot more than the selling price of the item...so people make them and pretty much sit on them...not a good thing for markets.

All this low demand stems from a number of things, I think.

First, the cost of crafting a lot of the higher items is too high, especially if they need salts.  Salt prices restrict the number of items made but it's still a lot cheaper to purchase the salts and make the item for yourself than to purchase it.  Thus, no market for the item really exists...a detriment to traders.

Second, the loss of the item is too easy, especially when attacking.  When you spend 100k on an item and then lose it to a bunch of spiders you naturally stop purchasing or using that item.  And if you are attacking a city far, far away you have little chance of sending your gatherers to pick up what you've lost, most of which is gone anyway.

Third, the cost of troops is so much lower that the bonuses you get from the items are not worth the cost.  You gain, I believe, a max 24% from an item that cost you 10 times what another soldier would cost.  In other words, for the same price of that 24% item you can probably get 5-10 more soldiers and thus receive 200 - 1000 percent bonus.  Five soldiers beats 1.24 soldiers every time....and if it's a lot cheaper, it's a bargain.  Thus, the value of the crafted items, in battle, is much too high to make using them for attacks, and probably for defense, reasonable.

What I think this boils down to is that the cost of military equipment is either too high or the cost of troops too low.  If you wish to make the equipment worth the effort...and thus increase demand, you must close the gap between soldier and equipment costs.  To do this you can either lower the cost of the equipment...which means that the resources to make the equipment must be very much lowered or raise the cost of troops greatly.

Right now the cost of troops is pretty low.  You can produce tens of thousands and maintain them pretty much with a good sized city.  My proposal is to do four things: 1) raise the cost of troop production greatly so that the cost of replacement means you are more motivated to purchase equipment ...thus increasing demand; 2) raise the effectiveness of equipment so that it becomes more valuable in attacks; 3) raise the amount of equipment that survives a battle and therefore the amount of equipment that can be retrieved; 4) increase the amount of equipment that can be carried by the cotters....see my comments on T2 cotters.

Part 3  Assign more crafting resources to lower the cost of equipment

About 70% of all the items I gather, rare minerals, rare herbs and anatomies aren't used for anything.  But they are everywhere.  I would suggest that to decrease the cost of equipment, increase the usefulness of gathered resources, and stimulate trade in a wider range of those gathered resources, we allow some kind of "equivalency" where you are allowed to use 10 of come item for a single more rare item.  For instance, while Silversteel is pretty rare, deepsilver is not.  Thus, if we were allowed to use 10 or 20 or 25 deepsilver in place of silversteel, the price of items using silversteel would go down.  The "equivalencies" would have to be worked out but the only other alternative is for the developers to greatly increase the amount of the more rare minerals and herbs.

Along this line the real driver of cost on some equipment are the salts needed.  Since salts are a result of killing elementals, we either need more elementals (and definately we need them in BL where there are NONE) or they need to drop huge amounts of salts when they are killed.  When a salt cost 200k and the item you craft it sells for 100k and you never use that item because it's too costly to lose, nobody buys the salts, nobody crafts the item and nobody sells the item.  It's a stagnant market.

Conclusion:

Illy markets are, like all markets, supply and demand driven.  The structure of trading is hampered by low demand (except perhaps during wartime to some degree), and the reasons for this are: equipment to troop cost ratio out of balance; crafted item to resource costs ratio out of balance; and centralized geographic trade.  The solutions is to lower the cost of equipment relative to the cost of troops; lower the cost of equipment by lowering the cost of resources needed to craft that equipment, and restricting Centrum access in a manner that increases trades in other hubs.

I know this has be a long and perhaps long winded discussion.  But they are, I think, some needed changes.  

What do you think?

aj

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ajqtrz Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster Joined: 24 May 2014 Location: USA Status: Offline Points: 500	Post Options Post Reply Quote ajqtrz Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Trade Improvements Posted: 17 Dec 2014 at 17:00
	Some adjustments might be in order within the trading aspect of the game. Changes recently made, while needed for a good reason, have shifted the flow of traded goods and made other problems increase or appear. This is in three parts. Part 1 Hub access First, since it was, I think, necessary to give the newer players access to at least Centrum, it has become the focal point of most trade. This is, in part, because it generally has the lowest prices, and during a peaceful period when speed is not critical, price wins out over speed. Thus, most players, even those in BL, who trade will have a trader in Centrum. This centralizes trading activities and leaves other hubs, especially in BL, un or under used. Since it does take some "critical mass" to really get a trading center going, in the long run this will hurt trade in BL and probably in the game overall. Possible solutions are: 1) Restrict the amount of time a player has free access to Centrum (by free I simply mean that it is visible to him or her without a trader present) 2) Restrict the distance Centrum is visible so that it includes the newb ring but not much beyond. 3) Restrict the type of items a player can purchase from Centrum without a trader. Perhaps the basic resources only since that's what most new players would be purchasing...or maybe those and a few other low level items. None of these are perfect solutions and it may be that "None of the above" should be pursued. However, a robust trading system should, I think, be built across Illyland and whatever can be done to encourage the geographic distribution of trade improves things for all. Part 2 Increase demand for equipment A second problem I see in Illyland trade is something far more difficult to fix, and which is more fundamental to what I consider a general weakness of the game, and that is the low demand for items in general. There are, I think, several reasons for this. First, the demand is low because the cost of using and crafting the items makes it better to just produce more troops than to equip them with expensive gear they will lose in battle. Second, the demand is low because supply is high. When demand is low there is a tendency to stock pile items while you wait for a better price. During a war you may get that better price, but the price during peacetime is greatly depressed if the marked to saturated. Third, the demand is low because the price is high on certain items....so high that nobody wants to purchase them and risk losing them in battle -- which would really be an argument that the demand it very low...much lower than the supply. In other words, the the cost of producing the item is a lot more than the selling price of the item...so people make them and pretty much sit on them...not a good thing for markets. All this low demand stems from a number of things, I think. First, the cost of crafting a lot of the higher items is too high, especially if they need salts. Salt prices restrict the number of items made but it's still a lot cheaper to purchase the salts and make the item for yourself than to purchase it. Thus, no market for the item really exists...a detriment to traders. Second, the loss of the item is too easy, especially when attacking. When you spend 100k on an item and then lose it to a bunch of spiders you naturally stop purchasing or using that item. And if you are attacking a city far, far away you have little chance of sending your gatherers to pick up what you've lost, most of which is gone anyway. Third, the cost of troops is so much lower that the bonuses you get from the items are not worth the cost. You gain, I believe, a max 24% from an item that cost you 10 times what another soldier would cost. In other words, for the same price of that 24% item you can probably get 5-10 more soldiers and thus receive 200 - 1000 percent bonus. Five soldiers beats 1.24 soldiers every time....and if it's a lot cheaper, it's a bargain. Thus, the value of the crafted items, in battle, is much too high to make using them for attacks, and probably for defense, reasonable. What I think this boils down to is that the cost of military equipment is either too high or the cost of troops too low. If you wish to make the equipment worth the effort...and thus increase demand, you must close the gap between soldier and equipment costs. To do this you can either lower the cost of the equipment...which means that the resources to make the equipment must be very much lowered or raise the cost of troops greatly. Right now the cost of troops is pretty low. You can produce tens of thousands and maintain them pretty much with a good sized city. My proposal is to do four things: 1) raise the cost of troop production greatly so that the cost of replacement means you are more motivated to purchase equipment ...thus increasing demand; 2) raise the effectiveness of equipment so that it becomes more valuable in attacks; 3) raise the amount of equipment that survives a battle and therefore the amount of equipment that can be retrieved; 4) increase the amount of equipment that can be carried by the cotters....see my comments on T2 cotters. Part 3 Assign more crafting resources to lower the cost of equipment About 70% of all the items I gather, rare minerals, rare herbs and anatomies aren't used for anything. But they are everywhere. I would suggest that to decrease the cost of equipment, increase the usefulness of gathered resources, and stimulate trade in a wider range of those gathered resources, we allow some kind of "equivalency" where you are allowed to use 10 of come item for a single more rare item. For instance, while Silversteel is pretty rare, deepsilver is not. Thus, if we were allowed to use 10 or 20 or 25 deepsilver in place of silversteel, the price of items using silversteel would go down. The "equivalencies" would have to be worked out but the only other alternative is for the developers to greatly increase the amount of the more rare minerals and herbs. Along this line the real driver of cost on some equipment are the salts needed. Since salts are a result of killing elementals, we either need more elementals (and definately we need them in BL where there are NONE) or they need to drop huge amounts of salts when they are killed. When a salt cost 200k and the item you craft it sells for 100k and you never use that item because it's too costly to lose, nobody buys the salts, nobody crafts the item and nobody sells the item. It's a stagnant market. Conclusion: Illy markets are, like all markets, supply and demand driven. The structure of trading is hampered by low demand (except perhaps during wartime to some degree), and the reasons for this are: equipment to troop cost ratio out of balance; crafted item to resource costs ratio out of balance; and centralized geographic trade. The solutions is to lower the cost of equipment relative to the cost of troops; lower the cost of equipment by lowering the cost of resources needed to craft that equipment, and restricting Centrum access in a manner that increases trades in other hubs. I know this has be a long and perhaps long winded discussion. But they are, I think, some needed changes. What do you think? aj

Sheza Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Forum Warrior Joined: 16 Oct 2012 Location: Kumala Status: Offline Points: 325	Post Options Post Reply Quote Sheza Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 17 Dec 2014 at 17:24
	I agree with aj. mostly about the gems and herbs that are useless. I am sure the Dev could come up with great ideas for them.. Good post Aj.
	If Horses don't go to Heaven when they die. then I want to go where they go.

Rill Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster General Player Council - Geographer Joined: 17 Jun 2011 Location: California Status: Offline Points: 6903	Post Options Post Reply Quote Rill Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 17 Dec 2014 at 17:51
	I agree with the main points of this post, and think that the suggestion that some of the resources needed to make crafted items (such as elemental salts) are overly restricted in supply. Because these items are so limited, people tend to hoard them in their inventories -- often without even making equipment with them. The reason is this: an elemental salt may be "worth" more by itself than as part of crafted equipment, since a salt has the potential to be transformed into many things, while equipment can only be what it is. Basically it's the POTENTIAL of the salt that is its main value. A similar pattern is seen with cows. The developers argue "oh, well there are lots of salts in inventories, therefore there is no need to increase the supply of salts." HOWEVER, the more restricted the supply of salts is, the LESS likely people will be to make them into equipment, given that the greatest value is from their potential. Only if the supply of salts is less restricted will people be likely to open up their inventories and actually craft with them. (I hope the developers never apply the same logic to cows, decide there are enough cows in Illy since so many people hoard cows, and make our common grounds produce at a drastically lower rate. Of course, Lyken would be delighted by this development.) The one point with which I disagree with the op is the balance of costs between troops and equipment. Because the cost of maintaining troops is pretty high, there are some types of equipment that may be more cost effective than troop maintenance, assuming that a pattern of long periods of peace interspersed with intense war hold true. Equipment has no maintenance cost, so if it can be produced from readily available resources, even if the bonuses are rather small they can be useful in a situation where one has reached the maximum number of troops one can reasonably maintain. The key there is still that people need to be willing to actually craft the equipment. Currently with equipment made with elemental salts, that does not hold true. I know the devs have an economist around somewhere. I'd like to see his/her comments on my reasoning.

ajqtrz Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster Joined: 24 May 2014 Location: USA Status: Offline Points: 500	Post Options Post Reply Quote ajqtrz Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 17 Dec 2014 at 18:48
	In response to Rill. The problem is not troop cost to build and maintain, it's the high expense of equipping those troops in relation to the lose of that equipment should it be used. Because it is expensive to use in relation to it's effectiveness, it is not used and thus, less demand. It matters not if you raise the cost of producing and maintaining troops or lower the cost of producing and using equipment, as either adjustment will mean the the demand for the equipment will go up and therefore markets will be stimulated. But, as you admitted, the ratio is different during a war period. It is normal during war for demand of all things to go up as war is a great stimulator. But we do need, I think, to balance things for periods of peace and let war have it's natural effect of driving up prices and demand. In fact, I would suggest that if you start with too low demand during peace (and therefore much lower prices) you get a lower base price (the normal "at-peace" price) which would mean a lot more stockpiling and thus longer and more frequent wars. By raising the base price by changing the demand curve through adjustments to the cost equipment in relation to the cost of troops you increase trade, reduce stock piling and make war less likely and perhaps shorter. aj

Brandmeister Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Postmaster General Joined: 12 Oct 2012 Location: Laoshin Status: Offline Points: 2396	Post Options Post Reply Quote Brandmeister Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: 17 Dec 2014 at 19:45
	I make a modest profit at crafting, even factoring in raw material costs and lost basic item production. It takes work to build up a client list, work to negotiate for raw materials, and work to determine which items are useful and in demand. The game doesn't need to be adjusted to penalize troops, substitute rare materials, or require more crafted items. The crafters need to stop imagining fantasy scenarios where they gouge customers for useless items. There are many items that can be made in large quantities at a fair profit. It took me a while to learn that, but it's true. P.S. Rill, the cost of cows is dictated by saddles. That's why cows are sometimes more expensive than leather armor and siege blocks. It is very rare for two cows be worth more than one saddle.