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allamagoosa View Drop Down
Greenhorn
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Joined: 17 Jul 2012
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Points: 78 		Direct Link To This Post Topic: Tourney Score 5 Day Linear Extrapolation
    Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 15:52

The following chart was created with data extracted from the graph (so I had to pick out the numbers by eye) and plotted in excel.

I calculated a simple average 2 day average of that data and used it to project 5 days into the future.

-A


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Arakamis View Drop Down
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Points: 97 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 17:00
ooohh another nerd like me.. :) nice job mate.. ;)
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Points: 96 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2012 at 17:03
Ah...but you'll have some more data....soon.....   Wink
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Points: 1118 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2012 at 01:30
Heh, have a good look at the rules, run some numbers, and try to model that. It will be enlightening ;o)
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Points: 2396 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2012 at 04:23
I fail to see any utility to a 5 day linear projection.
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allamagoosa View Drop Down
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Points: 78 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:09
Well then I will just have to make you a 6 day graph.

-A
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Rorgash View Drop Down
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Points: 894 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:28
so you did what extend the lines in the angle they were going and you say you predicted things? considering that in one day you can easily lose half you soul income and start dropping, and is happening back and forth, i would with some certainty say that your prediction will most likely be incorrect.
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Points: 894 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 13:30
also after taking a look at the IG graph, i see the straight line being completely off as Crows skyrocketed up and didn't go smoothly. 
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allamagoosa View Drop Down
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Points: 78 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 15:56
I don't disagree the prediction will be off. Most extrapolations are. Especially when they are based on only a couple of days of data and certainly in cases like this where things are very dynamic.

If you read my original post you won't see any claim regarding error bars on the extrapolation and I described what I did to come up with the graph.


-A
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Points: 800 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2012 at 16:47
Let's see some  B-splines.  Geek
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