So who's winning and is it really Illy armageddon?

Well obviously "blietzkrieg" didn't happen. Partly because of new siege rules that makes fast razing (less than a day) very hard next to impossible and training time disadvantage of defensive units against offensive ones. At the beginning some Absa towns were razed, but that actually makes less than 1% of Consone population. From strategic point of view this is negligible. Psychological impact might be higher. I think that the war has reached kind of a stalemate where neither side is launching numerous well defended sieges and other side is able to brake those sieges. 

Projection:

H? & Co had advantage at the beginning of the war with larger army sizes. Initial army size is less important each day that the war continues, so the final winner will be determined by the army production rate. Who has higher army production rate is hard to determine, but if I had to guess I would say Consone, simply because of more towns. Town size is really not a big factor in production rates. How many inactives there are in each camp is hard to determines, but I would guess about the same. I've saw no simultaneous 100 town sieges so far from any side which would in my opinion if successful be decisive strategical move. So I conclude that strategy from both camps is about the same- limited sieges to isolated targets. How well this tactic is implemented, well from the number of razed towns I would say it is not very effective. Both camps have more population than in the beginning of the war, so raze rate is very low indeed. 

My betting odds today would be 60:40 in favour of H? + others, but if war continues without any large scale siege operations for another week, I would say around 50:50. Of course this prognosis would be different if anyone else joined this war, especially Crows.